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Sovereign Risk and Currency Returns

Publication: Research - peer-reviewPaper

We empirically investigate the relation between sovereign risk and exchange rates for a broad set of currencies. An increase in the credit default swap (CDS) spread of a country is accompanied by a significant depreciation of the exchange rate. More generally, CDS spread changes have substantial explanatory power for currency returns which is largely driven by shocks to global credit risk. Consistent with the notion that sovereign risk is priced, we find that a country's exposure to global credit risk forecasts excess returns to trading exchange rates as well as to trading on the volatility, skewness, and kurtosis of currency returns.

Publication information

Original languageEnglish
Publication date16 Jul 2014
Number of pages45
StatePublished - 16 Jul 2014
Event - Lugano, Switzerland

Conference

ConferenceThe 41th European Finance Association Annual Meeting (EFA 2014)
Number41
LocationPalazzo dei Congressi
CountrySwitzerland
CityLugano
Period27/08/201430/08/2014
Internet address

ID: 41044526